El Niño Declared, Will The Indian Monsoon be Weaker?

The Indian weather office is on alert for harsher summer and weaker monsoon as El Niño conditions set in over the equatorial Pacific, signalling the possibility of hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia, HT reported citing the Japan Meteorological Agency. 

El Niño is associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and elevated temperatures during summer months. The IMD had, on May 29, downgraded its monsoon forecast, stating that rainfall over the country was likely to remain below normal at 90% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. The earlier forecast issued in April had projected rainfall at 92% of the LPA.

The newspaper explained that monsoon’s importance “cannot be overstated” as around “half of the country’s net-sown area lacks irrigation access, and the system replenishes 91 natural reservoirs that supply power generation and drinking water. The season arrives as cultivators already face a potential shortfall in fertilizer supplies caused by the war in West Asia.” The UN Secretary-General has called the US and Israel’s war on Iran as a global emergency. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” António Guterres said on June 2, the outlet said. 

Monsoon 2026 Tracker Highlights: IMD Issues Orange Alert in Two Districts in Kerala

The IMD issued an orange alert in two districts of Kerala and predicted thunderstorms with moderate rainfall and strong winds in various parts of the state, where the southwest monsoon remains active, reported the Hindu.

Thunderstorms with moderate rainfall and surface winds of speeds between 40-50 kilometers per hour in these two districts, as well as Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod districts of the State have also been predicted.

Meanwhile, a yellow alert has been issued for five districts of Kerala including Kasaragod, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram on Wednesday (June 10, 2026) where isolated heavy rain is likely

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also issued a heavy rainfall alert for four Telangana districts -- Vikarabad, Mahabubnagar, Narayanpet and Jogulamba Gadwal -- on Wednesday (June 10, 2026). Monsoon arrived on June 4, three days late in Kerala. It normally arrives around June 1. 

One day of extreme heat tied to 3,400 excess deaths in India, nearly 30,000 over five days: study

A single day of extreme heat results in an estimated 3,400 excess deaths, while a heatwave of five days could lead to around 30,000 additional deaths in India, reported  Hindustan Times, citing a study by scientists at University of California, Berkeley. The researchers adapted findings from a multi-city study of heat-related deaths in 10 Indian cities and applied them to entire districts. 

India Today said these numbers are significant because official government counts are so low – “sometimes just a few hundred in a bad season, because many heat-related deaths are not labelled as such”. 

 The Wire said the estimates in the study are likely still “conservative”. The news outlet said “such evidence‑based estimates for heat can help us argue for investment in heat‑resilient infrastructure, systems and processes”. 

BBC News said that according to the new study, Uttar Pradesh alone could account for more than 8,000 excess deaths during a severe five-day heatwave

Quarter of Heat Deaths Happen Below 33°C, US Study Finds

A new study of 5,465 heat-related deaths across the United States between 1996 and 2024 found that 25% occurred when the heat index stayed below 33°C, well beneath the benchmarks that commonly trigger US heat alerts. Researchers of the study published in the journal Weather Climate & Society analysed seven heat-stress indicators including  maximum and minimum dry-bulb temperature, universal thermal comfort index (UTCI), wet-bulb temperature (WBT), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), heat index, and apparent temperature. They found that the most reliable measures varied by region, with wet-bulb-based metrics performing best outside the arid Southwest. The study also showed that children under 10 faced fatal heat risks at lower temperatures than other age groups. The findings suggest that region-specific heat alert systems could better protect vulnerable populations, although further epidemiological research is needed to confirm the results.

US: White House Plan to Vet Grants Puts Climate Science in Jeopardy

According to Bloomberg, “sweeping” changes to federal climate funding announced by the Trump administration are expected to “stymie” the field of climate science. The outlet quoted Columbia University’s climate and law expert Michael Gerrard saying that “any kind of climate-related research, or renewable energy related-research” are “vulnerable”. The proposal puts grant decisions, now largely determined by expert review panels, under more direct political control, CNN reported that researchers are “fighting back” against the proposals, noting that critics say the rule will “codify” the administration’s attempts to “destroy” the scientific research enterprise in the US that has led to, among other things, greater understanding of weather and climate science. The report quoted former NASA climate scientist Dr Kate Marvel saying that putting “uninformed political hacks” in charge of the research funding system is “deeply stupid”. The news channel  said that climate scientists say the change could “set the field back for years”. 

Politico reported that the administration’s “assault on climate research” is akin to the “move fast and break things” mentality that “built” Silicon Valley.