Nearly Half of Climate-Vulnerable Countries Outpace US in Solar Adoption: Report
The report reveals a dramatic cost reduction in solar batteries and electrotech, bringing the upfront cost below that of fossil power
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A new report by global energy think tank, Ember found that nearly half of the countries in the Climate Vulnerable Forum and V20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), a group of 74 climate-vulnerable nations across Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific, representing 1.7 billion people, have already surpassed the United States in solar penetration.
The report said that while fossil fuels have long been seen as essential to economic development, the latest energy crisis has once again laid bare the vulnerability of that model, particularly for emerging economies that spend billions annually on fuel imports. It said the difference now is that they can build a cheaper and dependable energy path to prosperity on their own terms.
The report highlighted a clear shift that for many vulnerable economies, fossil fuels are no longer the default development pathway but are increasingly the slower, more expensive option, while clean energy is already delivering gains in energy security, affordability, and access.
"The economics of energy have fundamentally changed," said Daan Walter, Principal at Ember. "Falling solar and battery costs do not just undercut fossil fuels, they begin to price in the billion people the fossil system left behind."
Cost of Being Fossil Fuel Dependent
According to the report, the cost of staying dependent on fossil fuels has been massive. CVF-V20 importers spent $155 billion on net fossil fuel imports in 2024, a major drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves. These economies remain exposed to price shocks beyond their control: if oil averages $100 a barrel through 2026, their collective import bill could rise by more than $30 billion. In 19 CVF-V20 countries, net fossil fuel imports account for over half the trade deficit, for instance, 79% in Morocco, 67% in Pakistan, and 59% in Bangladesh.
The report also pointed out the human impact of the dependence stating that around 500 million people across these countries still lack access to electricity, while another 500 million face unreliable supply.
Rapid Shift to Renewable in Climate Vulnerable Countries
The report suggested that shifts in the countries are happening at a rapid pace, much faster than official data suggests. In eight out of ten CVF-V20 countries, solar imports since 2017 are at least three times higher than officially recorded installed capacity, pointing to a rapidly growing but undercounted decentralised energy revolution.
Over the past decade, solar, batteries and electric technologies have seen a dramatic cost reduction of 30–95%. This has lowered solar’s upfront cost to below fossil power, removing a significant barrier for capital-scarce economies. The report highlighted that climate-vulnerable economies are at the forefront of electrotech adoption today. Namibia and Togo lead in solar generation share at 35% and 18% respectively while Jordan and Kyrgyzstan dominate battery sales. Nepal and Sri Lanka also stand out with 70% and 64% share of EV sales.
Shift Goes Beyond Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence
The report stated that shift goes beyond reducing the fossil fuel dependence in the CVF nations. They hold three assets that the energy transition runs on, critical minerals, favourable manufacturing geography and fast-growing consumer markets and three competing blocs, China, the European Union and the United States seek access to all three. This creates not just a path to energy sovereignty but also a new source of geopolitical influence for these nations.
Some governments of those nations are already showing deliberate signals to leverage this opportunity. For instance, Vietnam for foreign direct investment is building a major electronics manufacturing base, integrating global technology supply chains rather than remaining purely an assembly platform. Meanwhile, Morocco has leveraged its dominance in phosphate reserves, holding roughly 70% of global supply and its proximity to Europe to position itself as a hub for battery materials and other clean energy supply chains, attracting large-scale investment from both European and Chinese firms.
“The old trade-off between climate and development is over. Vulnerable countries are leading a rapid clean energy shift, leapfrogging fossil fuels and even richer nations. Expanding solar and electrification is reducing import dependence, strengthening energy security, and shielding economies from global price shocks,” said Sara Jane Ahmed, Managing Director and Finance Advisor of the CVF-V20 Secretariat.