Record Heat in March, Second-Warmest Sea Temperatures Signal Approaching El Nino
Visual Credits: Canva
Monsoon this year is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said, warning the return of El Niño as a key risk to the June–September season, HT reported.
The private weather agency said there's a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA, according to Skymet’s projections. The probability of a normal monsoon is 20%, of above-normal rainfall 10%, and of excess rain zero. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 868.6mm.
The newspaper said the forecast carries significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices in a year when the conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a larger threat to energy availability and fertilisers – a critical farm input.
The outlet noted that the concern is the return of El Niño. After a year-and-a-half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral conditions, but a shift is imminent, according to Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation — driven by sea-surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino, the warmer phase, typically suppresses India’s monsoon and brings weaker rainfall; La Nina, its cooler counterpart, tends to strengthen it, the newspaper explained.
Stormy April ahead, lower than normal peak temperatures in India this summer: IMD
Day temperatures between April-June will likely be below normal, or normal across most parts of India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its updated forecast, warning that many parts of the country could also see intense thunderstorms in April, HT reported, adding that a wet April could damage standing ready-for-harvest crops, some of which have already been impacted by western disturbances in the second half of March.
Alerting the farmers, the agency predicted an 80% likelihood of an El Nino developing in the second half of the monsoon — which could sap the rainy season. In its forecast, IMD said many parts of eastern and the North East, and also the eastern parts of Central India, and the peninsular region adjoining these could, however, see hotter days.
The weather office has predicted above normal rain , at 112% of the long period average, in April; the LPA, based on average rain from 1971-2020 is 39.2 mm. The weather office said there is a 62% chance of El Nino emerging in June-July-August period and there is an 80% chance of El Nino persisting in August-September-October.El Niño years typically bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India. The monsoon is primarily driven by the intense heating of land compared to the sea during summer
Expect weaker monsoon this year due to El Niño: Skymet
Monsoon this year is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said, warning the return of El Niño as a key risk to the June–September season, HT reported.
The private weather agency said there's a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA, according to Skymet’s projections. The probability of a normal monsoon is 20%, of above-normal rainfall 10%, and of excess rain zero. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 868.6mm.
The newspaper said the forecast carries significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices in a year when the conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a larger threat to energy availability and fertilisers – a critical farm input.
The outlet noted that the concern is the return of El Niño. After a year-and-a-half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral conditions, but a shift is imminent, according to Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation — driven by sea-surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino, the warmer phase, typically suppresses India’s monsoon and brings weaker rainfall; La Nina, its cooler counterpart, tends to strengthen it, the newspaper explained.
Humid Heat Rises on the Coasts of India Impacting Health
With heatwaves getting frequent and intense, the southwestern coast is facing rising humid heat. Air packed with moisture doesn’t allow sweat to cool the body. On tropical coasts, especially before the monsoon, this is getting closer to dangerous levels as studies show — the human body struggles to cool itself, touching the limits of adaptation, Mongabay reported.
The outlet said heat stress along India’s coasts has intensified significantly since 1981, driven by the combined rise in temperature and humidity, a new long-term study led by scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows.
Analysing data from 1981 to 2020, IMD Pune scientists showed that wet-bulb temperatures — a measure of temperature with humidity — have increased across all seasons. The risks are largely under-recognised across the country’s humid shorelines, the report said. Fishers say their workdays are shrinking, as heat turns labour into endurance. Warming seas are amplifying risk, demanding urgent forecasting and adaptation, the climate news website said.
Shifting Climate Pattern: Winter Forest Fires Signal a Shift in Fire Season
In Kashmir, forests are burning in the snow season of December and January, months that were once largely considered fire-free, Mongabay reported. Forest fires are associated with the warmer months when dry vegetation and rising temperatures fuel their spread. However, there seems to be a shift in this pattern, the outlet said.
Incidents have been reported across several parts of Kashmir. Satellite-based fire alerts and official records suggest the problem is growing.
Irfan Rasool Wani, Chief Conservator of Forests, Kashmir, told Mongabay : “There has been a deficit in precipitation from around 2020 onwards…Because of this, conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for winter fires.”
Official forest department data show that 366 forest fire incidents were recorded across Kashmir between April 2025 and February 2026, affecting nearly 972 hectares of forest area.
During the winter months between December 2025 and February 2026, 48 forest fire incidents were reported across Kashmir indicating that fires are now appearing outside their traditional seasonal window, the outlet.