About 50% of viable grazing land can be gone by 2100: Report
Africa can lose as much as 65% of its grazing lands if fossil fuels continue to expand
The report identified that the ‘safe climatic space’ for the grazing of cattle, sheep and goat is under threat in a lot of places across the globe, especially in the tropics. Photo: Pixabay
Currently, about one third of the Earth’s land surface is commercial grasslands — meant for grazing of domesticated animals like cattle, sheep and goats. But by 2100, about half of this grassland will not be suitable for grazing anymore, according to a new report released by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The culprit is climate change, and more specifically, global warming. The report found that 36-50% of the land with suitable climatic conditions for grazing today will experience a loss of viability by the end of the century. It will affect more than 100 million pastoralists and up to 1.6 billion grazing animals.
The report identified that the ‘safe climatic space’ for the grazing of cattle, sheep and goat is under threat in a lot of places across the globe, especially in the tropics.
Breaching temperatures
“Climate change will shift and significantly contract these spaces globally, leaving fewer spaces for animals to graze. Importantly, much of these changes will be felt in countries that already experience hunger, economic and political instability, and higher levels of gender inequity,” said Chaohui Li, lead author of the report.
According to the report, these grazing systems have thrived within certain ranges of temperature (from −3 to 29°C), rainfall (between 50 and 2627 mm/year), humidity (from 39 to 67%) and wind speeds (between 1-6 metres/second).
As the temperatures rise and rainfall variability increases, these systems will be going through an upheaval. The report identified grazing lands in Africa to be under the most threat.
In a low emissions scenario, grasslands in Africa could reduce by 16%. But if fossil fuels continue to expand, then the loss of grasslands could shoot up to as much as 65%.
Temperatures on the continent already sit at the upper end of the safe climatic space identified as suitable for grazing. As temperatures rise, the climate niches currently supporting critical grazing regions in the Ethiopian highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin, and the Congo Basin will shift southward.
“This shift away from what we’re identifying as the safe climatic space really challenges the efficacy of adaptation strategies that have been used in places such as Africa in times of hardship, such as switching species or migrating herds. The changes are just too big for that,” said Prajal Pradhan, assistant professor of the University of Groningen, PIK researcher and a co-author of the study.