Deforestation May Push Amazon Near Tipping Point at even 1.5˚C: Report
The study said that about 62-77% of the rainforest could turn into degraded forest or savannah-like ecosystems if global temperature rose between 1.5˚C-1.9˚C
The widespread Amazon degradation would also have consequences beyond the rainforest itself.
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A new study by Nature warned that degradation of Amazon rainforest could begin at just 1.5˚C-1.9˚C of global warming if deforestation continued. The study led by the scientists at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research stated that this would in turn threaten rainfall systems, biodiversity, and regional agriculture.
The report said the continued deforestation could also dramatically lower the Amazon Rainforest’s resilience to climate change, pushing large parts of the ecosystem towards irreversible degradation at far lower warming levels than previously estimated.
Around 17-18% of the rainforest has already been lost, the system is closer to the critical range, the study said that about 62-77% of the rainforest could turn into degraded forest or savannah-like ecosystems if global temperature rose between 1.5˚C-1.9˚C and deforestation would reach 22-28% of the basin by 2040.
“Deforestation makes the Amazon far less resilient than we previously anticipated. It dries out the atmosphere and weakens the forest’s own rainfall generation,” said Nico Wunderling, PIK scientist and lead author of the study. “Even moderate additional warming could then trigger cascading impacts across large parts of the forest.”
Deforestation Could Threaten Self Sustaining Moisture Recycling Process
According to the study, Amazon currently recycles a large share of its own rainfall through atmospheric moisture recycling process and up to half of the forest’s precipitation is generated internally through this recycling process. Trees absorb water from the soil and release it into the atmosphere through transpiration, generating rainfall across other parts of the basin.
The study warned that deforestation would disrupt this self-sustaining hydrological cycle, intensifying drought conditions and making distant parts of the forest more vulnerable to collapse through what the researchers have described as cascading transitions, where one forest decline in one area impacts rainfall in another.
The study projected that the highest risk is in western and south-western parts of the Amazon, which is heavily dependent on rainfall recycled from other regions. High-risk areas were associated with annual rainfall dropping below 1,850 mm per year or cumulative water deficits exceeding 225 mm annually.
The research also found that the widespread Amazon degradation would also have consequences beyond the rainforest itself. Reduced moisture transport could disrupt rainfall patterns in agricultural regions across Southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Northern Argentina which could threaten crop yields and water security.
Halting Deforestation and Restoration is the Solution
The scientists underlined that halting deforestation and restoring forest cover could substantially strengthen the Amazon’s resilience to unavoidable warming. The study also pointed out that without further deforestation, large-scale transition would likely occur only at much higher warming levels of around 3.7°C to 4°C.
“Until now, the Amazon rainforest has played a vital role in stabilising the Earth system as a carbon sink, regulator of moisture recycling and host of Earth's richest biodiversity on land. Continued deforestation is undermining this stability, pushing the forest closer to a tipping point. This would not only be devastating for the region, but could have far-reaching consequences for the entire planet,” said Johan Rockström, PIK Director and co-author of the study.
