One-Third of Terrestrial Animals to be Impacted by 2085 Due to Extreme Heat: Study
The study says that sticking to Paris Agreement limit of less than 2˚C warming by 2100 would reduce the impact to less than 10%
The study found that species-rich regions in the Amazon basin, tropical Africa, and Southeast Asia as primary hotspots for increased extreme event frequency.
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A new study published in Nature Ecology and Evolution found that nearly 36% of wildlife habitats on land will suffer multiple extreme weather events such as heatwaves, fires, or floods if warming continues to rise into the latter half of the century by 2085 due to climate change.
A study that was authored by an international team of 18 scientists, and led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), analysed the impact on about 34,000 species to droughts, heatwaves, river floods, and wildfires and found that heatwaves pose the most widespread future risk.
Amazon Basin, Tropical Africa, and Southeast Asia at Risk
The report said that by mid-century, 74% of animal habitats will be exposed to heatwaves, 16% of them by wildfires, and 8% by droughts, particularly amphibians will be the most impacted by drying conditions than other animal groups. The study found that species-rich regions in the Amazon basin, tropical Africa, and Southeast Asia as primary hotspots for increased extreme event frequency.
“I think climate change, and in particular extreme events, are still really being underestimated when it comes to conservation planning. It’s not just going to be a gradual shift of temperature over many years,” said Stefanie Heinicke, lead author and a postdoctoral researcher at PIK.
Projection Shows Significant Increase in Ecoregions Exposed to Heat Events
According to the report, the most concerning finding is multi-hazard exposure. This occurs when species experience two or more extreme conditions within the same or consecutive years. Projections also indicated a significant increase in the number of ecoregions facing at least two different extreme events from 22 in 2050 to 236 by 2085.
The authors highlighted that the impact of extreme events can be magnified when they occur simultaneously in space and time. They cited the 2019-20 Australian wildfires as an example, which resulted in the deaths of over 72,000 flying foxes. This tragedy followed a severe drought and led to a population decline of 27–40% greater than would have been expected from the fires alone.
Sticking to the Paris Agreement Will Limit Extreme Heat Events to 9%
The report, however, noted that rapidly cutting emissions to net zero could still largely prevent these impacts. The report said that by sticking to the Paris Agreement’s target of less than 2˚C warming by 2100, land animal habitats that would experience multiple types of events by 2085 would be limited to just 9%.
“There’s still a lot of difference we can make by cutting emissions as fast as we can from today,” said Heinicke.