Forecast warns of chances of El Nino onset this year
IMD said it is too early to say with certainty during which month El Nino. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
By Editorial Team and Editorial Team | January 15, 2026
Early forecasts suggest El Nino conditions may emerge in July-August-September this year. This has raised concerns among meteorologists and climate scientists as El Nino years are associated with weak monsoon and very harsh summers in India, reported the HT. India Meteorological Department said it is too early to say with certainty during which month El Nino will emerge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin issued on December 29 suggests that there is a 48% chance of El Nino emerging in the second half of monsoon; a 45% of ENSO neutral conditions and a less than 10% probability of La Nina conditions during those months.
2025 was India’s eight warmest year, 2015-25 warmest decade on record
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said 2025 was the country's eight-warmest year, with the annual mean land surface air temperature touching 0.28°C above the 1991-2020 long-term average, underlining the persistent warming trend even in years without strong El Nino influence. The country experienced mostly ENSO neutral and La Nina conditions last year, which typically do not drive the kind of warming seen during El Nino years, reported the HT.
The warmest year on record remains 2024, when temperatures soared 0.65°C above the long-term average. The five warmest years for India are 2024 (+0.65°C), 2016 (+0.54°C), 2009 (+0.40°C), 2010 (+0.39°C) and 2017 (+0.38°C). Significantly, 10 of the 15 warmest years have occurred in the past 15 years, with the decade 2016–2025 emerging as the warmest on record.
IMD scientists emphasised that climate change impacts are clearly visible in India’s temperature trends. Over the longer period from 1901 to 2025, the country-averaged annual mean temperature shows a statistically significant warming trend of 0.68°C per century. During this period, maximum temperatures increased at 0.89°C per century while minimum temperatures rose at 0.47°C per century.
The newspaper pointed out that the year also witnessed four cyclones over the North Indian Ocean—two severe cyclonic storms (Shakthi and Montha) and two cyclonic storms (Senyar and Ditwah). Ditwah devastated Sri Lanka after making landfall along the island’s eastern coast in the early hours of November 28, triggering torrential rainfall, widespread flooding and landslides. The cyclone affected over 1.4 million people from more than 407,594 families across all 25 districts, with 410 confirmed deaths and 336 people.
Veteran ecologist Madhav Gadgil passes away
Madhav Gadgil (83), renowned ecologist known for his seminal work on the Western Ghats and a bottom up approach to environmental conservation passed away in Pune last week after a brief illness.
HT reported that Gadgil shaped grassroots environmentalism in India. “He is also known for correctly warning that building infrastructure and development projects in the Western Ghats would lead to disastrous consequences. Gadgil’s landmark work, dubbed the Gadgil Report, called for the protection of India’s ecologically fragile Western Ghats mountain range in the face of growing threats from industry and the climate crisis,” the outlet said.
The newspaper added that written in 2011, the report, whose recommendations are yet to be implemented, was prescient about the fallout of the ravaging of the mountain range.
Gadgil was named one of the six ‘Champions of the Earth’ for 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). “In a scientific career that has spanned six decades – taking him from the halls of Harvard University to the upper echelons of India’s government – Gadgil has always considered himself a “people’s scientist,” the UNEP statement had said.
Low cost cooling solutions reduce temperatures by 1.24°C in Bihar slums
New case studies published by Nature have revealed how two communities in Bihar living in informal settlements are using quick and low-cost cooling solutions such as radiant foils (that lower indoor temperatures by 1.24°C) and Mylar blankets, which reduce temperatures by .97°C.
Radiant foils consist of double-layered aluminium foil with insulating air bubble core whereas Mylar blankets use aluminised polyester film. Both solutions work primarily by reflecting solar radiation away from roof surfaces.
An additional 62-99 million people could face poverty by 2030 because of climate change
According to a research published by Nature, datasets of subnational poverty in 130 countries covering the past decade found that a 1 °C increase in temperature causes headcount poverty increases of 0.63–1.18 percentage points, using the daily poverty lines of US$2.15 (corresponding to 8.3% and 15.6% increases), and increases in the Gini inequality index of 1.3–1.9%. These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change. Poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more vulnerable, as are countries with higher agriculture shares in the economy