Rising Climate Risks Loom Over April Assembly Elections: Report

As West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry gear up for state assembly elections in April 2026, voters and election officials are preparing to face an unpredictable opponent: climate change.

According to an analysis of data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over the past five years (2021–2025), a clear shift toward hotter, more humid, and unpredictable weather patterns has emerged across these poll-bound regions, found a report by Climate Trends. With approximately 17.4 crore electors expected to turn up across 824 Assembly constituencies, intense seasonal weather like rising heat, humidity, thunderstorms, and lightning can threaten the voting exercise.

The scheduled polls fall squarely within India’s pre-monsoon season. Historically, this period aligns with severe heatwaves across central regions. For east and northeast India, it also marks the peak period for Nor'westers or Kalbaisakhi. These short-lived but highly violent thunderstorms bring abrupt, extreme wind speeds and intense lightning strikes.

On the other hand, the hot April weather has been breaking temperature records. April 2022 was documented as one of the warmest on record, with temperatures spiking 1.36°C above normal. Conversely, extreme precipitation swings have become standard. States have faced massive deficits in some years only to be hit with flooding downpours and lightning strikes. For election-bound states, this translates into heightened risks for voter safety, turnout, and election management.

Volatile weather

According to the report, the regional data revealed severe localised risks that could disrupt voting booths and campaign rallies alike. For example, Tamil Nadu has recorded a strong warming trend, alongside massive rainfall fluctuations. It experienced extreme deficits in 2024 followed by a 60% excess in rainfall in 2025.

The neighbouring state of Kerala consistently registered above-normal temperatures combined with intense episodes of heavy rain. Both southern states face highly elevated ‘wet-bulb’ conditions—a compounding measure of heat and high humidity that creates severe physical heat stress on the human body.

Based on IMD’s data, West Bengal and Assam are likely to witness fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning, in the week leading to elections, found the report. This might pose a threat of disrupting polling, particularly in rural and flood-prone areas.

Naturally, there is a growing need to integrate climate risk preparedness into election planning. This would involve measures like heat mitigation, contingency plans for storms, and improved safety protocols for frontline workers. 

“These evolving climate conditions could directly impact elections in several ways, like reduced voter turnout due to heat and discomfort, heightened health risks for voters and polling personnel, and operational disruptions caused by extreme weather events. We are already at the peak of pre-monsoon activities, which have been on the rise due to rising temperatures fueled by climate change,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

With over 2.19 lakh polling stations scattered across these states and roughly 25 lakh election officials on active duty, the logistical safety burden is immense. Severe exposure to flash floods, grid-disrupting thunderstorms, and dangerous heat exhaustion presents localized threats to poll turnouts and official safety.

Meteorological experts suggested that treating weather forecasts as a primary pillar of election planning is no longer optional. As climate extremes become the new baseline for India’s pre-monsoon season, ensuring structural stability at booths, reliable medical aid for heatstroke, and storm contingency plans will define the operational success of the April 2026 elections.